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Re: Van Siclen/Van Sicklen Controversy revisited”
Posted by: Ed Gusman (ID *****7908) Date: December 07, 2002 at 20:02:39
In Reply to: Re: Van Siclen/Van Sicklen Controversy revisited” by Richard Alan McCool of 1585

Richard quoting Gusman -Regretably, conclusive identities are not established by birth dates, even though the dates may be identical. Identities in a situation such as you have created can only be established by the surnames of fathers."

Richard - This is utter and complete nonsense.

Gusman - Two twins are born on the same day. The twins reach any age. Remove their names from any documents wherein there names appear, then add their birth dates to the documents and ask anyone who didn't know the twins or their background and ask the individula who now holds the twins records to assign the twins name to the correct documents. They have an exact 50 percent chance of being correct.

Gusman - Next include the twin's parents names and again ask the reviewer to assign the twins correct names to each document. Again a 50 percent chance of being correct even when the parents of the twins are known.

Gusman - Do the same exercise with tripletts and the reviewers chance of succes drops to probably 33 percent or less. I do not know how to calculate probabilities.

Gusman - Would you be willing to bet $10,000, $1,000, $500 or even less on the correctness each time the reviews assign the twins name to the document?

Gusman - Now Richard tell me again - "This is utter and complete nonsense."

Ed



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