Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
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In reply to:
Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
GLENN MANNING 12/06/03
No matter how long the video or how many people think this is so wonderful, the reports still only give you the following probability of a Most Recent Common Ancestor. Depending on how common a surname is, I still don't see that this is much more than chance. A 50% probability that there is a most common ancestor SEVEN generations ago is hardly very useful information, remember that means there is also a 50% probability that there is not a MRCA in the last seven generations. Now a 90% probability means more, but even with 25 out of 25 markers matched, you have to go back TWENTY-THREE generations to get this high probability. Using the average generation in my own family of 30 years, that's seven centuries. Again that's hardly useful information, and the numbers of generations much higher than that are just too ridiculous for the kind of information we want. Now, if we got 0 markers matched out of 25, I guess that would be useful, but I have a hunch, that none of the surname projects have results like that. I would also like to see some sort of comparison of matched or unmatched markers with different surnames, but from descendants of the same European (or other) geographical origins, so we could see how many of these markers are just common in a given area.
I am still very much open to anyone giving specifics on this forum as to exactly what they have learned from having this test, or exactly what they think they can learn.
Bob Manning
From the company site:
1. If I submit a sample to you for testing and you find that I match exactly with another person, how many generations ago did we have a common ancestor?
Here are the times back to the MRCA when ALL the markers match. For example, with 25/25 (all 25 markers match), there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was no longer than 7 generations, and a 90% probability that the MRCA was within the last 23 generations. Compare these with 12 and 10 -- with 12 markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the last 14.5 generations, while with 10 markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the last 16.5 generations.
Table 1. Probability for Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)
50% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
Number of matching markers 10 of 10---16.5
Number of matching markers 12 of 12---14.5
Number of matching markers 25 of 25---- 7
90% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
Number of matching markers 10 of 10---56
Number of matching markers 12 of 12---48
Number of matching markers 25 of 25---23
95% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
Number of matching markers 10 of 10---72
Number of matching markers 12 of 12---62
Number of matching markers 25 of 25---30.4
[Company Name] 25 marker test points to a much lower number of generations to the most recent common ancestor than other commercially available tests. We use exacting statistics appropriate for the non-independent transfer of genetic material on the Y Chromosome.
More Replies:
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Steven C. Perkins 12/08/03
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Robert Manning 12/10/03
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Robert Manning 2/11/04
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Jeri Beitel 12/11/03
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
vicki gould 7/23/04
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Jeri Beitel 7/23/04
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Steven C. Perkins 12/13/03
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
Jeri Beitel 12/13/03
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results
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Re: Manning Y -DNA Study Results