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Re: DNA Marker
Posted by: Robert Stafford (ID *****6330) Date: December 12, 2012 at 05:41:43
In Reply to: Re: DNA Marker by James Presley of 4603

Even with 67 markers Y-DNA STR testing is not a very fine tool for pinning down the number of generations. The 95% Confidence Interval is 1-10 generations. The 2.5% on the upper side has a very long tail. Very remote cousins are often better matches than very close cousins.

You can see it when you use Doug McDonald's TMRCA calculator to see the probability distribution, rather than the cumulative probability distribution. Note that he uses transmission events (meioses) which are twice the number of generations. (FTDNATiP and Doug use different mutation rates than I did in my calculation above.)

http://dna-project.clan-donald-usa.org/tmrca.htm

The only thing the results really tell you is that they are consistent with your paper trail.

If you want a more precise tool, I would look at the autosomal tests at:

FTDNA (Family Finder). As of yesterday, pricey compared to 23andMe.

www.23andMe.com (Relative Finder). They also give you health information and haplogroups, which FTDNA does not. They have just dropped their price to $99.

These are pretty good at pinning down relationships back to about 3rd cousins.

Ancestry is offering a discounted price for their test to subscribers, but you need to be logged in to see it. I have not read much about the relative finder part.

www.dna.ancestry.com (AncestryDNA test).


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