Posted By:Peggy Chowning
Email:
Subject:Question on Haplogroup Predictor and YSearch
Post Date:April 02, 2013 at 06:18:30
Message URL:http://genforum.genealogy.com/dna/messages/4592.html
Forum:DNA Forum
Forum URL:http://genforum.genealogy.com/dna/

While I wait for Y-DNA test results for two cousins that agreed to be tested to represent my lineage, I thought I would review the data at YSearch for any matching surnames or variants. I found three: 8FQME, 58k9z and R3EY7. I ran a genetic distance report to find that the first two are a genetic distance of 1 apart and that the third is a genetic distance of 3 and 4, respectively, from the first two. Then I noticed that YSearch indicates that the haplogroup for the first two is I2b2 (tested) and for the third I (tested). I'm very new to this but I assume that this means they are in different subgroups and YSearch's genetic distance report would not be valid. Is that correct?

I read that I2b2 was an outdated subgroup name that had been renamed to I2a2b L38+ so I thought I would try running the haplogroup predictors to see if it would confirm this but now I'm even more confused...

Whit Athey's predictor gives I2b (xI2b1) with a probability of 100% for all three men with a fitness ranging from 79 to 82.

Jim Cullen's predictor gives Ix-S23 => 100% as the haplogroup for all three. I-S23-A is the highest percentage haplo-I subclade for all three men but the probability varies from 55 to 76% I-S23-A-RecLOH is the second highest with probabilities ranging from 19 to 24% The only branch on the I tree I could find with S23 was labelled I2a2. The version information on this predictor was last updated in 2008. Does that mean that it is out of date and these results should be disregarded?

I feel like a noob stumbling around in the dark and would really appreciate help from the experts that post here. Fundamentally what I would like to know is: Are these three men likely to be in the same subclade or not? And which of these is likely to be the correct one?